Global carbon emissions: the world keeps polluting after Covid-19

After a lull during Covid-19, carbon emissions are up again and towering dangerously above pre-pandemic levels in some countries. Data and experts show how the world has fared in the wake of Covid, what the changes mean, and how how seeing the previous hiatus as progress might be misleading. Greenhouse gas emissions are on the rise again after a break imposed by a combination of Covid-19, slowing economic output and severe lockdown restrictions. Environmentalists hoped the pause would give the largest emitters time to reflect. But emission cuts were no harbinger for sustained change, at least not according to the latest figures for the thawing economic post-pandemic revival in parts of Asia. The story of why emissions have rebounded at a steeper rate than they were rising before Covid-19 is complex. The findings are a reminder that emissions in countries often depend on trade with and economic stimulus in other nations. China is a good example of that. The nation’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 not only rebounded but now vastly exceed those pre-pandemic levels. E&T talked to an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). For China, the recent boost partly originated from a big domestic stimulus for construction, says Lauri Myllyvirta. In addition, a real estate boom in China had knock-on effects. Myllyvirta cites indicators like investments in smelting and pressing of iron and steel metals to make his case. A buoyant post-pandemic export boom - a consequence of consumption resulting from stimulus in other countries -reinforced carbon emissions in China, he says. There is evidence that Chinese provinces which championed exports are now among the worst offenders in missing energy-consumption control targets. Though, with still six months to go before the end of the year, judging by their course only about a third are reported to be on track to meet China’s own energy consumption and intensity targets for 2021. T’s analysis compares daily emission data for the first quarter of 2019 with the first quarter of 2021, reflecting the changes between before and after the deepest trench of the global pandemic-related restrictions among various industry categories. China’s daily emissions in the power, industrial and domestic aviation sectors, exceed figures from early 2019 (see chart). Data on carbon emissions after the global financial crisis shows emissions to explode in a similar fashion as today, only to change to more moderate levels after. The 2021 emission rebound may also be occurring at a different rate in various sectors. Sluggish recovery in aviation will impact oil demand, experts say. China and the US will continue to compete in making ambitious pledges to reduce emissions. That’s positive only if they follow up on it with action. Under Joe Biden, the US made considerable promises towards reducing emissions by 2030 and prepare the US to reduce emissions by 50 to 52 per cent below 2005 levels by then. China’s President Xi gave his word to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 and a peak in emissions before 2030. It’s time we see some changesOne study published by researchers at Tsinghua University and researchers from the US and France, observed that Covid-19 largely failed to provide an opportunity to cut emissions. Researchers concluded that China’s fast CO2 recovery and partial re-opening for global trade, “the longer-term effects of the pandemic on emissions remain uncertain”. It depends, among other factors, on “persistent changes in human behaviour”. Such changes can be observed in the data by Carbon Monitor. Covid-19 might have made emissions to ‘switch sectors’. A trend towards more people staying at home for work may have increased post-pandemic emissions in the residential category. In the UK, residential carbon emissions in Q1 of 2021 often exceeded those observed for 2019. Estimates for daily emissions are based on heating degree days. Prices of green sources decline data